Great analysis of the Chinese motivations. I'm always glad to see folks left of center recognize the danger China presents and Taiwanese flashpoint.

Of course, I have to disagree with a couple of points. I feel that the fact that we have avoided any serious large scale military entanglements and drawn down our combat operations over the last few years is a win for Trump. Military action is far harder and has much more serious long-term consequences than people realize. Look at the messes in Libya, Iraq, Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc. Trump has also bullied most NATO members into paying closer to their share, expanded our military presence in Poland, and sent lethal aid to Ukraine (pre-phone call), all of which counter and tamp down the potential for a European war when Russia decides to invade the Baltic countries.

He's also been antagonistic with China and started a trade war. Ill advised or not, he's called China out repeatedly. My worry about a Biden presidency is that he will be too accommodating with the Chinese.

My biggest fear is that neither side, left or right, has the stomach to go to war over Taiwan. Whoever gives that signal, that's when China will strike.